Buy, Sell or Hold?

Hi,

A radio show I listen to once in a while has a game called, buy, sell or hold? The idea is to comment on the future prospects of various trends (i.e. will they continue to grow, will they stay the same or decline). Maybe we could try it with some recent windsurfing trends. Here's my list:

Buy, Sell or Hold?

Kiting - Sell - too many problems, takes too much space, costs as much as windsurfing, gets banned everwhere. Dangerous to even be near it, let alone sail one. Accessable to only the elite sailors. Works for Robby Naish in Maui and the Gorge, but then doesn't everything?

No Cam Sails - Hold - popular, but not the 'new in-thing' anymore. Still isn't used in racing, but for non-racing applications seems to be a viable alternative.

Wide Boards (Recreational) - Buy - more and more people are discovering the benefits of early planing, and there seems to be a lot of new designs on the horizon. New sailors go for these and get used to the idea of sailing more often in less wind. It seems to be the more experienced ones that don't try them.

Giant Sails - Buy - always easy to justify buying a sail 2-3 meters bigger than anything else you've got. You don't have to wait for something to wear out! Pretty soon beginers will be using 10 meter sails. (I won't however.) May move into the sell catergory in a few years after everyone has one or two. The enthusiasm for these is immense. Hardly a day goes by that some rec.dotter doesn't tell about using his huge sail (9-12 m) in huge winds (20-30 kt). ( I remember when everyone wanted a GTO with a 450 cubic inch engine also.)

Longer Masts, fins and booms - Buy. See prev. 2 above.

Formula Racing - Sell (US at least) - disputes over rules, lack of events, complaints over cost, and still requires too much wind in many if not most places. (Remember you heard it here second. Frank Weston was first). (Of course, maybe I just don't understand racing. Perhaps constant complaining about this kind of stuff is what makes racers tick.)

Longboards - Sell - (Though I am holding mine - I love it like my dog). Replaced by wide boards, still fun in the right circumstances, but seldom the board of choice for anyone, except dog lovers, these days.

Racing - Hold - not in the sell category anymore, but it remains to be seen if it will become really big again. Dispite the question marks about formula racing, racing has had some positive developments, and highly successful events such as the Midwinters suggest that the future is now more positive. Still, hard to put it in the buy category due to uncertainties, and limited growth in participation. However, lots of people are trying hard to revive it, so it may turn around.

Wind - Sell - global warming may kill the wind. Don;t worry - there will be plenty of wide boards, big sails and long fins. And if I'm right, Formula boards will be available cheap!

From what I have read, global warming will bring more severe weather events, which to me translates into more wind, not less.

Agreed. After reading thru the Kitemare database, I don't think I'll be playing with anything but my trainer and Off Road Rollerblades or ATB.

No way, at least not the Formula Racing gear. It may not be your standard Formula Racing, but an Open Unlimited fleet is a great division to have Formula gear. If the wind's up, a Formula board will destroy any longboard. If not, a longboard will belittle any Formula sailor on a standard course. Best of both worlds in that fleet, and keeps racing fun.

My huskies can't carry a 10.7 like my Equipe, but if they see a rabbit they can certainly pull like one...

( I remember when everyone wanted a GTO with a 450 cubic inch engine also.)

We still want them - they just don't make them anymore : (

Tom - Chicago

I agree with your other kite comments, but recreational kiting is far mo' bettah in other places than Maui, and especially than the Gorge. Just in the U.S. mainland alone, the South and probably East Coasts have some world-class venues for kites, with far better winds, water, space and topography for kiting. One Gorge (and Costa Rica and Europe and South African) sailor flew his instructor of choice to Texas for a week of private lessons because it was the best kite venue he had seen yet. And why is it accessible only to elite sailors? In New Mexico alone, two of its main four windsurfing lakes are quite amenable to kites, with good launches, accessible shorelines, and easy recoveries downwind. One of them whitecaps 2 out of 3 afternoons all summer, according to its rangers, fishermen, and water skiers.

No-cams a 'viable alternative'? They're the only kind of sails hundreds of Gorge sailors, and countless wave sailors, will use, or have used in 10-15 years. Maybe we should start calling big no-cam sails something like 'Big No-Cam Sails' to distinguish them from the RAFs the rest of us have used since Spanier designed and began marketing them back in 1984 ... back when they held the world speed record. A definite Buy, especially now that some 'Big No-Cam Sails' can match 'Big Cammed Mothas' upwind.

Giant sails? Long booms? I think I'd rather just move than rely on that for all my sailing. Come to think of it .... that's what I did, with zero regrets! I'd have to at least have reasonable hopes for occasional blasts of real wind to stick it out. (At least I didn't have to carry my GTO engine around with me, or uphaul or hold it up or jibe it. My primary regret with the GTO (besides no brakes) was selling it for $250 while it would still run 140 mph. Who knew?)

I think what killed off local backwoods racing, at least where I grew up with it, was the work required. Mike and Kathy got DAMNED tired of being almost the whole race committee week in and week out, and when they resigned no one picked up the torch. That, and the fact that it made a truly lousy spectator sport. Looking at a two-dimensional sport from a sideline in the same plane provided zero perspective ... the view was just a buncha sails going in different directions with some orange things scattered among them. Spectators had no clue what was going on until one sailor pumped his fist in the air and everybody else got a long face. At least Formula boards transform that kind of racing from 3 mph slogging to 30+ mph excitement.

The wind will just move, not go away. Gotta be ready to move with it.

Giant sails/booms/wide boards/huge fins all combined: BUY! Nothing else comes close to their capacity to open up wind-deprived locations to exciting sailing ... and that includes the Gorge, where gear like that can double one's shred time.

Mike m/

Although I'm not into kites, I'll buy all the kiting you want to sell. I've watched it go from nothing to domination of most of the popular sites on or near the Chesapeake. The concensus is that it's easier to learn than windsurfing, and the fact that kite gear can be easily carried along with your luggage on airliners is a big plus. No need for a Sprinter van. It's not any more expensive than windsurfing, and if it's more dangerous, that's just one more attraction for a younger more adventureous demographic.

I'm selling giant sails. Once people spend a season with them they'll learn that for recreational sailing they don't really do too much to lower the planing threshold. They'll also begin to realize that all those back problems might have something to do with rigging, hauling to the water and uphauling those beasts. Finally they'll add up the costs and decide that going in 9kts vs 10kts isn't worth the additional $2000 investment. Long masts, booms and fins.....sell.

Frank Weston

Hey Randy,

Entertaining post. I would just like to add that the 'buy,sell hold' concept is relevant to the venue - pretty simple concept as we all know.

Saw 4 kiters out today mixed in with 3 sailors on 8M sails....looks like they were all having fun - not much swimming seen except for 1 kiter who looked like he lost his kite pretty far out ;(

The 3 people I spoke with didn't have a good time with the higher winds we experienced last week - so maybe they've settled into an area of the sport they really like?? (Windspeeds from 10-20MPH or so)

At a place like Leadbetter Beach in Santa Barbara, kites and windsurfers can mix - (if they all know what they're doing of course)

Big kites on the beach though at least 12M - I wonder if those big kites are easier on the back than 12M sails as Frank had suggested?

-Will-

Frank,

What's your definition of big ?? 11 meter 12 meter ??

I still believe having something in the 9-10 meter range is very relevant for lightwind recreational sailing.

We just came back from Cabarete this week. It seemed that at times there were more kites out (mostly in their own bay to the west) than windsurfers.

Apparently, last week in Cabarete there was a huge wind that came up and blew alot of kiters into trees, etc. Some injuries, even.

I'm told by some of the locals that kiting is for many a 'try-once' sport - someone grabs a lesson or two, has a couple good sessions, but decides that the sport is too technical or even too scary.

Personally, nothing can beat the simplicity and 'rightness' of a sailboard and sail, so I will not even try a kite.

For recreational... no-cam are much nicer.

Wideboards are great, especially for beginners and perpetual intermediates like me who will never likely graduate to shortboard.

Global 'warming' or whatever the countries in Kyoto-accord denial want to call it has increased the wind in many areas.

Mike wrote<< A 220-pound racerhed bud of mine many years ago said about the primary difference between his 7.5 and 8.5 sails, 'The 8.5 is heavier'. >>

Many years ago these sails were different animals. My 2000 8.8 weighs the same as my 1993 6.1 did. There's fun to be had with big sails, but I only intend to own one. I'll take it on faith that 9.0 is about the end of recreational practicality before diminishing returns set in.

Michael